Auckland vs Melbourne City prediction

Auckland have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Melbourne City have taken 7 points from their last 5. Auckland average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Melbourne City average 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Auckland won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 to Melbourne City, with 2.7 goals a game. Our model expects Auckland to score about 1.4 and Melbourne City about 1.1. Melbourne City should avoid losing by two goals or more.