Fiorentina vs Como prediction

Fiorentina have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Como have taken 7 points from their last 5. Fiorentina average 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Como average 1.6 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Fiorentina won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Como, with 3.5 goals a game. Our model expects Fiorentina to score about 1.3 and Como about 1.5. Fiorentina should avoid losing by two goals or more.