Lazio vs Parma prediction

Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5, while Parma have lost 3 of their last 5. Lazio average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Parma average 0.7 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Lazio won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Parma, with 1.5 goals a game. Our model expects Lazio to score about 1.8 and Parma about 0.8. Lazio should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.