Monterrey vs Guadalajara prediction

Monterrey have won 3 of their last 5, while Guadalajara have taken 6 points from their last 5. Monterrey average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Guadalajara average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Monterrey won 0, drew 0 and lost 2 to Guadalajara, with 5.5 goals a game. Our model expects Monterrey to score about 1.5 and Guadalajara about 1.4. Monterrey should avoid losing by two goals or more.