Sturm Graz vs Ried prediction

Sturm Graz have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Ried have won 3 of their last 5. Sturm Graz average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Ried average 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home. When they last met, Sturm Graz won 1-0 against Ried. Our model expects Sturm Graz to score about 1.9 and Ried about 1.0. Sturm Graz should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.