Hammarby vs Sirius prediction

Hammarby have won 4 of their last 5, while Sirius have won 3 of their last 5. Hammarby average 2.5 scored and 0.6 conceded at home, while Sirius average 2.3 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Hammarby won 0, drew 0 and lost 2 to Sirius, with 3.0 goals a game. Our model expects Hammarby to score about 1.5 and Sirius about 1.2. Sirius should avoid losing by two goals or more.