Alajuelense vs FC Motagua prediction

Alajuelense are unbeaten in their last 5, while FC Motagua have won 3 of their last 5. Alajuelense average 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while FC Motagua average 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home. When they last met, Alajuelense drew 0-0 against FC Motagua. Our model expects Alajuelense to score about 1.2 and FC Motagua about 1.1. FC Motagua should avoid losing by two goals or more.