Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction

Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5, while Comerciantes Unidos have lost 3 of their last 5. Melgar average 2.1 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Comerciantes Unidos average 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded away from home. When they last met, Melgar drew 1-1 against Comerciantes Unidos. Our model expects Melgar to score about 2.0 and Comerciantes Unidos about 1.2. We expect only around 3.2 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.