Melbourne City vs Sydney prediction

Melbourne City have not won in their last 5, while Sydney have taken 6 points from their last 5. Melbourne City average 1.1 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Sydney average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Melbourne City won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Sydney, with 0.5 goals a game. Our model expects Melbourne City to score about 1.2 and Sydney about 1.0. Sydney should avoid losing by two goals or more.