Elche vs Valencia prediction

Elche are unbeaten in their last 5, while Valencia have taken 5 points from their last 5. Elche average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Valencia average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Elche won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Valencia, with 1.5 goals a game. Our model expects Elche to score about 1.4 and Valencia about 1.1. Valencia should avoid losing by two goals or more.