Excelsior vs Twente prediction

Excelsior have not won in their last 5, while Twente have won 3 of their last 5. Excelsior average 1.4 scored and 1.7 conceded at home, while Twente average 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Excelsior won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Twente, with 0.5 goals a game. Our model expects Excelsior to score about 1.2 and Twente about 1.9. We expect only around 3.1 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.