Telstar vs Utrecht prediction

Telstar have not won in their last 5, while Utrecht have won 3 of their last 5. Telstar average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Utrecht average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Telstar won 0, drew 1 and lost 1 to Utrecht, with 3.5 goals a game. Our model expects Telstar to score about 1.7 and Utrecht about 1.6. Utrecht should avoid losing by two goals or more.