Lugano vs Basel prediction

Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5, while Basel have lost 3 of their last 5. Lugano average 2.3 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Basel average 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Lugano won 2, drew 1 and lost 0 to Basel, with 3.3 goals a game. Our model expects Lugano to score about 2.4 and Basel about 1.1. Lugano should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.