Atalanta vs Parma prediction

Atalanta have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Parma have lost 3 of their last 5. Atalanta average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Parma average 0.7 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. When they last met, Atalanta won 4-0 against Parma. Our model expects Atalanta to score about 1.8 and Parma about 0.9. Atalanta should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.