Jong Ajax vs Vitesse prediction

Jong Ajax have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Vitesse have taken 5 points from their last 4. Jong Ajax average 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded at home. When they last met, Jong Ajax lost 1-6 against Vitesse. Our model expects Jong Ajax to score about 1.5 and Vitesse about 1.7. Jong Ajax should avoid losing by two goals or more.