UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

UTC have lost 4 of their last 5, while Deportivo Garcilaso have lost 3 of their last 5. UTC average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Deportivo Garcilaso average 0.6 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home. When they last met, UTC lost 0-2 against Deportivo Garcilaso. Our model expects UTC to score about 1.3 and Deportivo Garcilaso about 1.6. We expect only around 2.9 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.