Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction

Sturm Graz have taken 8 points from their last 5, while Celje have not won in their last 5. Sturm Graz average 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Celje average 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home. Our model expects Sturm Graz to score about 1.9 and Celje about 1.0. Sturm Graz should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.