Famalicão vs Arouca prediction

Famalicão have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Arouca have won 3 of their last 5. Famalicão average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Arouca average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Famalicão won 1, drew 2 and lost 0 to Arouca, with 1.0 goals a game. Our model expects Famalicão to score about 1.1 and Arouca about 1.2. Famalicão should avoid losing by two goals or more.