Jong AZ vs Almere City prediction

Jong AZ have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Almere City have won 3 of their last 5. Jong AZ average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded at home, while Almere City average 2.2 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. When they last met, Jong AZ lost 3-4 against Almere City. Our model expects Jong AZ to score about 1.8 and Almere City about 2.0. Jong AZ should avoid losing by two goals or more.