Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix prediction

Auckland have lost 3 of their last 5, while Wellington Phoenix have won 4 of their last 5. Auckland average 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Wellington Phoenix average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Auckland won 3, drew 0 and lost 0 to Wellington Phoenix, with 4.0 goals a game. Our model expects Auckland to score about 1.5 and Wellington Phoenix about 1.4. We expect only around 2.9 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.