FC Thun vs Basel prediction

FC Thun have lost 4 of their last 5, while Basel have lost 3 of their last 5. FC Thun average 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Basel average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded away from home. In their last 4 meetings FC Thun won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 to Basel, with 4.3 goals a game. Our model expects FC Thun to score about 1.9 and Basel about 1.8. FC Thun should avoid losing by two goals or more.