St.Gallen vs Lugano prediction

St.Gallen have won 3 of their last 5, while Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5. St.Gallen average 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded at home, while Lugano average 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded away from home. In their last 4 meetings St.Gallen won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 to Lugano, with 3.5 goals a game. Our model expects St.Gallen to score about 1.3 and Lugano about 1.9. We expect only around 3.3 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.