Napoli vs Lazio prediction

Napoli have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5. Napoli average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Lazio average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Napoli won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Lazio, with 2.0 goals a game. Our model expects Napoli to score about 1.5 and Lazio about 1.7. We expect only around 3.1 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.