Bahia vs Flamengo prediction

Bahia have won 3 of their last 5, while Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5. Bahia average 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Flamengo average 1.9 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Bahia won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Flamengo, with 1.5 goals a game. Our model expects Bahia to score about 1.1 and Flamengo about 1.3. Bahia should avoid losing by two goals or more.