Toluca vs Tijuana prediction

Toluca have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Tijuana have not won in their last 5. Toluca average 2.1 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Tijuana average 1.1 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Toluca won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Tijuana, with 0.5 goals a game. Our model expects Toluca to score about 1.8 and Tijuana about 1.1. Tijuana should avoid losing by two goals or more.