Alavés vs Málaga prediction

Alavés have not won in their last 5, while Málaga have not won in their last 5. Alavés average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Málaga average 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home. Our model expects Alavés to score about 1.8 and Málaga about 1.0. Alavés should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.