Nacional vs Sporting Braga prediction

Nacional have not won in their last 5, while Sporting Braga have lost 3 of their last 5. Nacional average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Sporting Braga average 1.5 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Nacional won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Sporting Braga, with 2.0 goals a game. Our model expects Nacional to score about 1.2 and Sporting Braga about 1.5. Nacional should avoid losing by two goals or more.