Coritiba vs Grêmio prediction

Coritiba have not won in their last 5, while Grêmio have not won in their last 5. Coritiba average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Grêmio average 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. When they last met, Coritiba lost 0-1 against Grêmio. Our model expects Coritiba to score about 1.5 and Grêmio about 1.2. Coritiba should avoid losing by two goals or more.