Everton vs Newcastle United prediction

Everton have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Newcastle United have lost 3 of their last 5. Everton average 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Newcastle United average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Everton won 2, drew 0 and lost 1 to Newcastle United, with 4.7 goals a game. Our model expects Everton to score about 1.5 and Newcastle United about 1.2. Everton should avoid losing by two goals or more.