AZ vs Groningen prediction

AZ have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Groningen have taken 7 points from their last 5. AZ average 2.1 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Groningen average 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. When they last met, AZ lost 0-3 against Groningen. Our model expects AZ to score about 1.8 and Groningen about 1.5. AZ should avoid losing by two goals or more.