Twente vs Ajax prediction

Twente have won 4 of their last 5, while Ajax have won 4 of their last 5. Twente average 1.9 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Ajax average 2.3 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. When they last met, Twente won 2-1 against Ajax. Our model expects Twente to score about 1.6 and Ajax about 1.6. Twente should avoid losing by two goals or more.