Aucas vs Independiente del Valle prediction

Aucas have lost 3 of their last 5, while Independiente del Valle have won 3 of their last 5. Aucas average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Independiente del Valle average 2.3 scored and 1.2 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Aucas won 0, drew 1 and lost 2 to Independiente del Valle, with 3.3 goals a game. Our model expects Aucas to score about 1.1 and Independiente del Valle about 1.6. Independiente del Valle should at least avoid defeat.