Cartaginés vs Escorpiones Belén prediction

Cartaginés have won 3 of their last 5, while Escorpiones Belén have lost 3 of their last 5. Cartaginés average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Escorpiones Belén average 1.7 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. When they last met, Cartaginés won 4-1 against Escorpiones Belén. Our model expects Cartaginés to score about 2.2 and Escorpiones Belén about 1.1. Cartaginés should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.