Emmen vs MVV Maastricht prediction

Emmen have won 3 of their last 5, while MVV Maastricht have not won in their last 5. Emmen average 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded at home, while MVV Maastricht average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded away from home. When they last met, Emmen won 2-1 against MVV Maastricht. Our model expects Emmen to score about 2.0 and MVV Maastricht about 1.4. MVV Maastricht should avoid losing by two goals or more.