Utrecht vs NEC prediction

Utrecht have won 3 of their last 5, while NEC have taken 6 points from their last 5. Utrecht average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while NEC average 1.6 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. When they last met, Utrecht won 3-1 against NEC. Our model expects Utrecht to score about 1.7 and NEC about 1.5. Utrecht should avoid losing by two goals or more.