Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction

Sparta Rotterdam have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Ajax have taken 8 points from their last 5. Sparta Rotterdam average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Ajax average 2.4 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Sparta Rotterdam won 0, drew 1 and lost 1 to Ajax, with 5.0 goals a game. Our model expects Sparta Rotterdam to score about 1.4 and Ajax about 2.5. Ajax should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.