Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction

Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5, while Fluminense have lost 3 of their last 5. Palmeiras average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded at home, while Fluminense average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Palmeiras won 2, drew 0 and lost 1 to Fluminense, with 3.7 goals a game. Our model expects Palmeiras to score about 1.7 and Fluminense about 0.9. Palmeiras should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.